Wolfsburg v Leverkusen over 3.5 goals @ 1.96
Now looking at the standings we see two teams heading the opposite way. In one hand we have Leverkusen who’s sitting on top of the table at 7 points with a remarkable 9GF/6GA. In the other we have Wolfsburg at a dismal 13th position with only 2 points after 3 games close to relegation. A stark contrast from last year where they a good start to the season. To quote a sports commentator “Red Bull plays a naïve but fun to watch football” and that’s so true when you look at Leverkusen. Schmidt has brought that same mentality he instilled at RBS. They score a lot of goals but they concede at lot as well too much really for a top tier team. Their form won’t last that long if they don’t smarten up in defense but as over bettors defensive soccer is boring, right?
Enough with that now let’s get to the stats:
Wolfsburg are 1-0 on the O3.5 at home while Leverkusen’s only away game saw two goals but that was unusually low given it was against a Dortmund team who couldn’t convert shots if their lives depended on it.
Leverkusen avg 4.7 GM with an avg of 3 goals a game while Wolfsburg avg 3 GM with an avg of 1.33 after 3 games.
But this sample is too small to have any significant impact on your handicapping. Where it gets interesting is when you look the past matchups between these two. Below you will find some interesting facts:
Past 5 matchups: 3.4 GM with the O3 pushing or cashing 4/5
Past 5 home games (Wolfsburg): 4.2 with the O3 pushing or cashing 5/5
Wolfsburg ML has cashed 4/5 when at home
Past 34 matchups dating back to 1998 sees an avg of 3.22 GM
Past 17 home stands at Wolfsburg dating back to 1999 sees an Avg of 3.02 GM so that follows the trend as well.
Despite the good home record for Wolfsburg I favour a 3-1 or 3-2 win for Leverkusen and if you look at this year’s result thus far statistically it makes sense. Bayer ML @ 2.4 is very tempting and is being steamed as you’re reading this but I prefer the over as it’s a safer bet.
Weather: 20% chance of rain (>1 mm) with sunny breaks
Final Play Wolfsburg-Leverkusen OVER 3.5 GOALS @ -1.96