If you’ve been following Salzburg long enough you know that matchups between these two happen to be some of the highest scoring in professional soccer past two years. Not to mention they’ve been extremely profitable to me so let’s hope they extend the favour on Sunday. Salzburg has dominated Neustadt in recent years and I don’t see why that wont be the case this weekend. With 29 goals in their first six games they were on their way to beat every single goal scoring record in professional football but the honeymoon didn’t last too long. Stuck with a string of key injuries in their defensive core Malmo was finally able to expose their weak defense and scored three unanswered goals to make it through in the second leg of their Champions League qualifications.
Salzburg also lost a key player in Mane late in the transfer season. He was critical in the midfield area and one of the highest scoring players last year for them. Reckless play did not help either as they had a red card in two consecutive games. Since that great run Salzburg has lost three of the last four conceding 8 times and scoring only 6 goals which is unusually low for them. However just like chicken soup is good to fight a cold I believe a matchup vs Neustadt at home is exactly what they need to get past their funk. With 3 points behind Wolfsberger a loss here would greatly hinder their chances of going back on top of the table. On the bright side it looks like some of the injured players are making a comeback and honestly I’ll be shocked if they don’t cover the over by themselves.
One of the things that frustrate me the most is when I hear that Salzburg recent woes are because they lost their manager who now coaches Leverkusen in the Bundesliga. I kept hearing that they won’t be as offensive or creative as in the past. 10 games in the season and they’ve scored 35 goals for a healthy 3.5 GM. Let me remind you that last season Salzburg had 33 goals in their first 10 games. Except for Mane the lineup has remained almost intact with the key strikers Alan and Soriano in good form as always. What people have to understand is that RED BULL controls and manages Salzburg. Red Bull’s trademark is to be exciting, crazy, out of this world and that’s the ideology they portray in everything they do. I know that most of you are not business majors so you cannot get a grasp of this but you best believe that whoever they will bring and have brought in as coach will and should share that same mentality. Same thing goes for their Bundesliga 2 team RB Leipzig who displays the same attacking flair. They have plenty of money and they are not scared to use it to bolster up their attack. Fortunately for us a team that attacks a lot will leave big gaps in the defensive area which makes for nice high scoring games.
Now that you guys learned how money talks let’s look at the numbers
Past 5 matchups: 31 goals scored for an avg of 6.2 GM. In that same timespan RBS has scored 28 goals for an avg of 5.6 GM. Neustadt has scored 3/5 for an avg of 0.6 GM.
O3.5 has pushed or cashed 5/5
Past 5 matchups at home: 23 goals scored for an avg of 4.6 GM. Salzburg have scored an avg of 3.8 GM and an avg of 0.8 GM for Neustadt.
O3.5 has pushed or cashed 3/5
Past 10 home games dating back to 2010 has seen 44 goals scored for an avg of 4.4 GM
Past 21 games dating back to 2009 has seen 84 goals for an avg of 4 GM.
With the BTTS YES being steamed and the fact that Salzburg has been conceding a lot of goals recently I believe Neustadt is able to net one here.
Numbers give me 5-1 based on recent performance but to be on the conservative side 4-1 is what makes sense historically and statistically speaking.
Weather: 18 degrees Celsius partly cloudy with 20% chance of rain (perfect football weather)
Plays (Pinnacle Sports)
Salzburg-Neustadt O3.5 @ 1.85 for 500