It is not easy to stay at the top, and those at the top will remind you that it is imperative to stay hungry. I am beginning to doubt that when I watch Spain and Barcelona.
This game reminded me of Euro 2012, Spain turned up for the final and the final only. Every other game leading up to that barely saw them bring anything like the performance we expect from them.
Yesterday we saw a visibly demotivated Barcelona, go 1-0 down against Celtic in the first half.
Betting wise, the value in this game could be found in judging whether or not Celtic had the ability to score. Barcelona's defence included a young debutant Bartra, and Javier Mascherano, who is now an accomplished make shift centre back. After scoring 3 in their previous Champions League outing, which is almost as rare as them winning a Champions League away game, both to score was a decent shout. I missed it, i wasnt to angry though, but next time I will give Celtic a bit more credit.
But one must give credit where credit is due.
This is the move I made, amazing odds for an inevitable Barcelona next goal, the only doubt lied in whether they would score two before half time and not one. As the half wore on I was grateful Barcelona hadnt scored early, but as half time drawed nearer I expected, and at the same time worried.
On 44 minutes... Messi to Iniesta, Iniesta to Xavi, Xaxi to Iniesta...Unbelievable Goal.
Early Kick Off
Benfica freezed their nuts off in a 2-1 defeat to Spartak Moscow, a scoreline which the hosts are accustomed to relinquishing in recent games. I happened to back Benfica to win in this game, and usually tend to let a game kick off and get a feel for the flow of a game before placing a bet. On this occasion I backed Benfica minutes before kick off. My genius decision making was rewarded after 3 minutes, when Benfica went 1-0 down. Benf*ckers. They equalised after 23 minutes. Then went 2-1 down again after 43 minutes. At least the f*ckers had the gratitude to not give me any false hope.
Man Utd v Braga
Sir Alex Ferguson is a bastard.
In his pre-match statement last night he mentioned Braga are dangerous away from home, feigning concern. But actions speak louder than words. As his concern seemingly lead him to start Michael Carrick in defence. I had my eye on both to score, why I didnt get it all in pre kick off for 1.9 is beyond me. Sluggishness/ Procastination / Indecision, these can be costly foes to a sports bettor.
Both to score @ 1.86..1.76
The game kicked off, guess what...this time I waited a few minutes, I knew both to score would come in, but I wanted odds of 1.86. As the game kicked off the odds slashed to 1.7. I thought to myself, Braga... I beg you, dont score for at least 5 minutes, or at least not this attack. What happened? First attack...first cross...Header. Goal. Alan scored and went off to the corner flag to dance with his team mates, I should have been dancing with him, instead I was trying to destroy my couch.
Early goals usually kill any value remaining in a game, but there was still some joy to be had.
Man Utd(Mu) a goal down in a second half(/2) at Old Trafford against virtually any opposition(x), in alegbra can also be expressed as:
(Mu-1) + x / 2 = VALUE!
Except it is not a case of finding x as much as finding where the value is. I went all in with:
Man Utd to score next @ 1.56
At 2-1 down other attractive alternatives were:
Over 4.5 goals @ 1.8
Man Utd to win @ 2.6
In hindsight haggling over 0.16 of profit margin for both to score when 25 minutes later the bet would have been realised. Was foolish, and greedy. It's all a learning curve.
On to the next one!